For my project on juvenile offenders in the UK in 2040, I have been exploring future trends and challenges related to youth justice. To gain a deep understanding of how the system might evolve, I’ve combined driver mapping with the Three Horizons framework. The framework allows me to analyse the present system, identify emerging transitions, and consider long-term transformative changes.

We started by researching the current state of juvenile justice, also trends in related topics including family, education, work and society. We gathered over 150 signals and consolidated into 30 trends. Through driver mapping, I identified key factors that could influence the future, such as technological advancements, societal changes, and evolving legal policies. This mapping helps me visualise the forces shaping the future and how they interact with each other.

The Three Horizons framework has been crucial in structuring my thinking. It has allowed me to break down my analysis into three distinct phases: the present horizon (current challenges and systems), the emerging horizon (new trends and innovations), and the future horizon (long-term, transformative changes). By considering each of these horizons, I can better understand where the juvenile justice system might be headed and how it can adapt to meet future challenges.

The scenarios I’ve developed are nuanced, accounting for the complexities of social, legal, and technological changes. I’ve considered the interplay between emerging trends such as AI in rehabilitation, shifts in public opinion, and evolving legal frameworks. These factors influence the future of youth justice, and through detailed scenario-building, I’ve been able to forecast potential challenges and opportunities that could arise.

The focus of my project has been to design services that shift the system toward this more preferable future. These services are based on proactive, forward-thinking approaches, such as personalized rehabilitation plans, restorative justice practices, and community-led reintegration strategies. By integrating these services into the current framework, we can begin to create a system that not only responds to youth offenders but actively supports their growth and reintegration into society.

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UK's Youth Justice System in 2024

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The landscape of the UK youth justice system in 2024 reflects an ongoing struggle to balance punitive measures with rehabilitative approaches. While there is a shift toward restorative justice and diversion programs, young people continue to face significant challenges within the system. Efforts to reduce the reliance on custodial sentences are ongoing, with a greater emphasis on community-based alternatives, such as education, mentorship, and social reintegration programs.

However, the system still grapples with high rates of youth incarceration, often for relatively minor offenses, contributing to overcrowding in detention facilities. This overcrowding can lead to poor conditions, lack of access to effective rehabilitation, and increased recidivism. Mental health issues, trauma, and socio-economic factors are often underlying causes of youth offending, but the system still struggles to adequately address these needs within detention centers.

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For over 30 years, the UK youth justice system has seen a troubling pattern where first-time offenders who commit crimes at the age of 16 are often imprisoned by the time they reach 24. This cycle has become a harsh reality for many young people, with the system routinely opting for custodial sentences rather than rehabilitation or alternatives. Despite calls for reform, young offenders who enter the system at 16 find themselves incarcerated for years, exacerbating the very issues mental health struggles, lack of education, and socio-economic disadvantages that led them to offend in the first place.

By the time these individuals turn 24, they are often deeply entrenched in the justice system, facing the long-term consequences of early imprisonment. The lack of support, rehabilitation, and educational opportunities within detention centers leaves them ill-equipped to reintegrate into society, perpetuating a cycle of reoffending. This pattern has persisted for decades, with the system's reliance on imprisonment rather than addressing root causes remaining a consistent issue.

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UK's worldview in 2040

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We look beyond the immediate scope of justice, law enforcement, or social services to incorporate insights from related fields such as education, mental health, technology, and community engagement. By considering how these areas interact, it becomes easier to spot early-stage trends or "weak signals" subtle, often overlooked indicators of change that can be important in shaping future policies or interventions.

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John Rawls' idea that "ethics evolve over time" speaks to the dynamic nature of moral and ethical frameworks in society. This quote emphasizes that ethical principles are not static; they shift and adapt as societal values, understanding, and contexts evolve. When applying this idea to the process of horizontal scanning, it suggests that the way we approach emerging trends, weak signals, and the problems within systems like the youth justice system must be flexible and responsive to changing ethical standards over time.

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People in The Future

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A future persona is a tool used in strategic design and foresight to create a vivid and detailed representation of a potential individual or group in the future. These personas are based on current trends, emerging signals, and speculative insights about how society might evolve. They help us understand the needs, behaviors, challenges, and aspirations of future individuals or groups, guiding the design of systems, products, or services that can better address those future realities.

By creating these future personas, we can humanize and personalize potential futures, making them more relatable and grounded in real experiences. This approach helps us design systems, policies, and interventions that not only address current issues but also anticipate and meet the needs of future generations.

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Challenge

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Key Challenge for first entrants

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Final Design

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In a future where AI-driven justice and digital rehabilitation replace human connection, Turning Point is a bold intervention. This intensive, trust-based mentorship program prioritises real-world interaction over virtual solutions, ensuring that youth offenders experience genuine human support instead of automated systems.

Unlike traditional programs that rely on standardised curriculum, and digital tracking, Turning Point focuses on Personalised offline activities and learning generated by standardized modules using matrix crossover method to develop personalisation under limited resources along with face-to-face mentorship.

Each participant is paired with a trusted mentor, guiding them through four key proposition:

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1. Stability First – Addressing basic needs like housing, healthcare, and emotional well-being.
2. Reflection & Accountability – Engaging in hands-on workshops to understand their actions and impact.
3. Future Planning – Exploring skills, career goals, and education pathways through real-world practice.
4. Community Reintegration – Applying their learning in social environments, fostering belonging and purpose.

This approach challenges the over-reliance on digital solutions and proves that human connection is irreplaceable in rehabilitation. Turning Point helps youth offenders rebuild trust, discover their potential, and reintegrate into society  through real people, real experiences, and real change.

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Trust-based mentorship is a long-term, relationship-driven approach where the mentor focuses on building deep trust and personal connection with the mentee rather than just offering formal guidance or transactional support.

Unlike traditional mentorship programs that are goal-driven (e.g., employment, education) or authority-driven (e.g., caseworkers, probation officers), trust-based mentorship is youth-centered, emphasizing emotional connection, stability, and lived-experience guidance.

While mentorship and buddy-style programs do exist in various forms in the UK justice system. However, most existing models are either short-term, fragmented, or focus on specific issues like gang exit strategies or substance abuse recovery. If your idea is to create a holistic, trust-based mentorship system that truly sticks with young offenders long-term, then it could fill gaps that current programs don't fully address.

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Mentors will play a critical role in helping first-time youth offenders overcome fear & trauma, stigma, and mistrust in a world shaped by AI-driven justice and digital vigilantism. The right mentors must be relatable, consistent, and trustworthy.

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The Buddy System is a trust-based mentorship program designed to support first-time youth offenders while ensuring their safety through strict safeguarding measures. It complies with UK safeguarding laws, including the Children Act 1989 & 2004, Keeping Children Safe in Education (KCSIE, 2023), and Working Together to Safeguard Children (2023).

To ensure mentor reliability and ethical engagement, all mentors undergo enhanced DBS checks, safeguarding training, and professional oversight. The program maintains strict boundaries—no private meetings, personal financial assistance, or social media contact. Mentor-mentee communication is supervised, and all disclosures related to abuse, exploitation, or criminal activity are escalated through formal safeguarding pathways.

The system integrates multi-agency collaboration, with regular check-ins between Youth Offending Teams (YOTs), social services, and probation officers. Structured public meetings, monitored communication, and feedback loops ensure accountability and risk prevention.

By combining trust-building with safeguarding compliance, the Buddy System provides a secure, ethical, and effective mentorship model, reducing reoffending while ensuring youth safety and rehabilitation.

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Building trust in a short period is challenging, especially for first-time justice system entrants, who may be skeptical of authority figures and interventions. However, trust-based mentorship doesn’t require years, it can be established quickly with the right approach.

Trust isn’t built just because someone is "relatable" or "shows up." Many first-time justice-involved youth have been let down before, and some might actively reject help. A trust-based buddy system can't just be hopeful—it needs to be built for reality.

1. Expect skepticism. It’s normal for young people to reject the buddy at first don’t take it personally.
2. Prove reliability over time, even when they push back. Show up, but don’t smother them.
3. Let them dictate the pace. If they ignore you for weeks, don’t force engagement just stay present.
4. Keep boundaries firm. Being a mentor isn’t about being a “friend” it’s about being a steady, supportive figure even when they make mistakes.
5. Accept that some youth won’t engage, and that’s okay. The goal isn’t to save everyone it’s to be available when they’re ready.

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The program follows a structured, intensive 1-3 month journey, designed to support youth offenders in rebuilding their lives through human connection, self-reflection, and real-world engagement.

1. Stability & Support – The first step ensures that basic needs such as housing, healthcare, and emotional well-being are met. Each participant receives personalized support, laying the foundation for a stable future before deeper rehabilitation begins.

2. Reflection & Accountability – Through guided workshops and mental health support, participants reflect on their past actions, the impact of their crimes, and the harm caused to victims. This stage fosters self-awareness, accountability, and emotional growth.

3. Future Vision & Goal Setting – In envision workshops, participants explore career paths, develop life goals, and build skills that align with their aspirations. This helps them shift focus from their past mistakes to their future potential.

4. Community Reintegration – Finally, participants apply their newly developed skills in real-world settings, engaging in community projects, apprenticeships, and work placements to rebuild trust and reintegrate into society.

By combining personalized support, human mentorship, and hands-on experience, this intensive program empowers youth offenders to break the cycle of crime and take control of their futures.

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Psychological Theories Supporting the Rehabilitation Model

1. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs (1943) – Addressing Basic Needs First

• Stability must come before rehabilitation (food, shelter, healthcare).
• Ensuring basic needs are met reduces desperation-driven reoffending.

2. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) & Moral Reconation Therapy (MRT) – Reflection & Accountability

• Helps offenders recognize their actions, process trauma, and shift criminal thinking patterns.
• Increases empathy and reduces impulsivity, preventing reoffending.

3. Hope Theory (Snyder, 1991) – Future Planning & Goal Setting

• Encourages clear goal-setting and motivation, helping youth see a path beyond crime.
• Strengthens self-efficacy and future-oriented thinking.

4. Desistance Theory (Maruna, 2001) – Community Reintegration & Identity Shift

• Offenders are more likely to reform if they develop a positive self-identity.
• Applying skills in real-world settings creates social belonging and purpose.

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Backcasting

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Instead of waiting until the 2040 scenario unfolds, we can take proactive steps today to shape the future of youth justice. Backcasting is a strategic planning tool that works in reverse; it starts with defining a preferred future and then maps out the actions needed today to make that future a reality. This approach allows us to break down long-term goals into actionable steps, focusing on creating real change in the present that will lead to the desired future outcomes.

In the case of the Ministry of Justice (MoJ), instead of waiting for an ideal youth justice system to emerge by 2040, we can begin now by implementing a roadmap of interventions that build toward this future. The first step would be focusing on rehabilitation for young offenders, rather than relying solely on punitive measures. Immediate action can include investing in restorative justice programs, mental health services, and educational opportunities that target youth early, as soon as they enter the justice system.

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In parallel, we need to work on building trust and understanding within society. This includes fostering greater empathy toward young offenders, emphasizing rehabilitation over punishment, and creating community-based support systems. Society’s attitudes toward crime and punishment must evolve, and this change can begin today through public education campaigns, community engagement, and systemic reforms that highlight the value of rehabilitation.

By using backcasting, the MoJ can create a clear roadmap that doesn’t wait for future changes but instead catalyzes action now. This will lead to a more just, rehabilitative, and compassionate system for young people, aligning today’s efforts with the preferred future we want to create by 2040.

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Dr. Spock’s quote, “Kids don’t need perfect adults; they need compassionate ones to show them how to grow,” beautifully encapsulates the essence of what the youth justice system should aspire to be. In the context of our work, it reminds us that young people, especially those who have made mistakes, do not need to be met with perfection or judgment. Instead, they need compassion—a system that offers them support, guidance, and understanding as they navigate difficult circumstances and seek to grow.

The youth justice system must be one that teaches, nurtures, and reforms, rather than one that punishes or abandons. By fostering an environment where compassion and understanding are at the forefront, we can create a system that allows young people to learn from their mistakes, grow stronger, and reintegrate into society. It’s not about perfection, but about creating opportunities for growth, learning, and redemption. Just as a compassionate adult shows a child how to navigate the complexities of life, a compassionate justice system can guide youth offenders toward better futures, breaking cycles of criminality and creating a society that values rehabilitation over retribution.

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